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What will be the outcome of Oscar Jenkins' detention in Russia by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Released • 25%
Exchanged in prisoner swap • 25%
Remains detained • 25%
Other • 25%
Credible international news outlets or official government announcements
Story
Russian Forces Capture 32-Year-Old Australian Teacher Oscar Jenkins, First Time in Ukraine
Dec 22, 2024, 11:24 AM
Russian forces have captured Oscar Jenkins, a 32-year-old Australian teacher, marking the first instance of an Australian mercenary being taken alive since the onset of the Special Military Operation. Jenkins was reportedly apprehended in Ukraine, and videos circulating among Russian military bloggers show him speaking in English and identifying himself as a teacher. The situation has drawn attention due to the unusual nature of Jenkins' capture, as he appears to be unaware of the gravity of his situation, as indicated by his remarks during the video.
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Other outcomes • 25%
Remains in custody • 25%
Released through prisoner exchange • 25%
Released through diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Released • 25%
Exchanged • 25%
Remains in detention • 25%
Sanctions or diplomatic actions against Russia • 25%
Other reactions • 25%
No significant international reaction • 25%
Condemnation from multiple countries • 25%
Transferred to a third country • 25%
Granted asylum in Ukraine • 25%
Held as prisoner of war • 25%
Returned to North Korea • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
61 to 72 months • 25%
More than 72 months • 25%
Less than 48 months • 25%
48 to 60 months • 25%