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What will be the outcome of North Korea's investigation into the drone incident by March 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
South Korea responsible • 25%
Third-party involvement • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
No conclusive result • 25%
Official announcements from the North Korean government, major news outlets
Story
North Korea Recovers Crashed South Korean Leaflet Drone in Pyongyang, Threatens 'Declaration of War'
Oct 19, 2024, 03:18 AM
North Korea announced that it has recovered the remains of a South Korean military drone that allegedly crashed in Pyongyang on October 13. The drone debris was discovered in the Hyongjesan district's neighborhood No.76, Sopho-dong No.1. The unmanned aerial vehicle, equipped with a leaflet box, resembles those displayed by South Korea during its Armed Forces Day parade earlier this month. North Korea claims the drone was used to scatter anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets over the capital on October 11. The North Korean Ministry of National Defense released photos of the drone and warned that any further incursions by South Korean military assets would be considered a 'declaration of war' and would trigger an immediate retaliatory attack. South Korea's government has declined to comment on the North's claim.
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Resolution reached • 25%
Ongoing discussions • 25%
Discussions stalled • 25%
No discussions initiated • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
International mediation • 25%
Unresolved • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Mediation efforts • 25%
Condemnation without action • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Identified responsible parties • 25%
No conclusive findings • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Other • 25%
Condemnation of South Korea • 25%
Condemnation of North Korea • 25%
Call for investigation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military action • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
No response • 25%
Other • 25%
Military action • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other • 25%
Condemnation of South Korea • 25%
Support for South Korea • 25%
Calls for investigation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
UN sanctions imposed • 25%
US-led diplomatic mediation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other action • 25%