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What will be the outcome of Israeli special forces raids in southern Lebanon by October 15, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful with minimal casualties • 25%
Successful with significant casualties • 25%
Unsuccessful with minimal casualties • 25%
Unsuccessful with significant casualties • 25%
Reports from credible news sources like the Wall Street Journal or Al Jazeera
Story
Israeli Special Forces Conduct Raids in Hezbollah-Controlled Lebanon Ahead of Possible Ground Incursion This Week
Sep 30, 2024, 08:43 AM
Israeli special forces have been conducting small, targeted raids into southern Lebanon to gather intelligence and probe Hezbollah's capabilities. These operations, reported by the Wall Street Journal, are in preparation for a possible broader ground incursion that could occur as soon as this week. The raids have included entering Hezbollah-controlled areas and tunnels near the border. The situation remains fluid as tensions escalate in the region.
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Minor Success for Israel • 25%
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Ceasefire • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
Major military victory for Israel • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
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Successful with significant resistance • 25%
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Israel achieves significant military objectives • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Successful in neutralizing Hezbollah threat • 25%
Limited success with ongoing threats • 25%
No significant impact on Hezbollah • 25%
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Successful with minimal casualties • 25%
Successful with significant casualties • 25%
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Failure • 25%
Significant damage to Hezbollah • 25%
Minimal damage to Hezbollah • 25%
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Hezbollah retaliates effectively • 25%
