Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of Israeli military operations using ground-penetrating radar by the end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Multiple successful operations • 25%
Limited success • 25%
No significant success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Official military reports or major news outlets
Story
US Provides Ground-Penetrating Radar to Israel in Hunt for Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar
Aug 25, 2024, 10:02 AM
The United States has provided Israel with ground-penetrating radar technology to assist in the search for Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas. This technology allows Israeli forces to detect heat signatures of individuals entering or exiting tunnel entrances. Despite these efforts, Sinwar has successfully evaded capture, which has hindered Israel's military success in the ongoing conflict that began after Sinwar orchestrated the October 7 attacks. The American intelligence service is actively involved, with special teams working to locate Sinwar using this advanced technology, although they have not yet succeeded. Additionally, a special unit within the Shin Bet is tasked with intercepting Sinwar's communications. The intelligence-sharing efforts between Israel and the United States are reportedly unbalanced.
View original story
Similar markets
Successful with minimal casualties • 25%
Successful with significant casualties • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Successful • 33%
Unsuccessful • 33%
Ongoing • 34%
No operation • 25%
Limited operation • 25%
Moderate operation • 25%
Full-scale operation • 25%
Operations will significantly disrupt Hezbollah activities • 25%
Operations will have minimal impact on Hezbollah activities • 25%
Operations will escalate into a larger conflict • 25%
Operations will cease without significant outcomes • 25%
Increased regional stability • 25%
Increased regional instability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ground invasion of Lebanon • 25%
Airstrikes only • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Significant Israeli gains • 25%
Significant Hamas gains • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Successful operation with minimal casualties • 25%
Successful operation with significant casualties • 25%
Operation fails • 25%
Operation does not occur • 25%
Successful with minimal casualties • 25%
Successful with significant casualties • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Failure • 25%
Israel achieves its objective without broader conflict • 25%
Hezbollah retaliates significantly • 25%
Broader conflict ensues • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Decisive victory for Israel • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%