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What will be the outcome of international diplomatic efforts in response to the airstrike by June 2025?
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Muhammad Abdullah•Islamic Jihad•Nur Shams•West Bank•Israeli Air Force•Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Shin Bet•Abdullah•Hamas•Tulkarm
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from international organizations such as the United Nations or EU statements
Story
Israel Kills Islamic Jihad Commander Muhammad Abdullah, Ally of Hamas, in Overnight West Bank Airstrike
Oct 11, 2024, 04:36 AM
Israeli forces announced that they have eliminated Muhammad Abdullah, the head of the Islamic Jihad's network in the Nur Shams refugee camp in the occupied West Bank. The operation, which took place overnight and involved an airstrike by the Israeli Air Force, was a joint effort between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Shin Bet security agency. Abdullah, an ally of Hamas, was involved in organizing and executing terror attacks and deploying explosives targeting IDF troops. Alongside him, another member of the militant group was also killed in the city of Tulkarm.
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UN sanctions on Israel • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Sanctions imposed on Israel • 25%
Formal UN condemnation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions on Russia • 25%
Increased military support for Ukraine • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Sanctions on Israel • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Support • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Mixed • 25%
New sanctions on Russia • 25%
Increased military aid to Ukraine • 25%
Peace talks initiated • 25%
No significant actions • 25%
Successful peace negotiations • 25%
Increased military escalation • 25%
Continued stalemate with no major change • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Continued hostilities • 25%
Other diplomatic resolutions • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Sanctions on Israel • 25%
Sanctions on Hezbollah • 25%
Calls for peace talks • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased support for Ukraine • 25%
Increased sanctions on Russia • 25%
Calls for peace talks • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Israel refrains from striking • 25%
Israel conducts limited strikes • 25%
Israel conducts full-scale strikes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%