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What will be the outcome of humanitarian aid and prisoner swap negotiations by the end of 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Humanitarian aid only • 33%
Prisoner swap only • 33%
Both humanitarian aid and prisoner swap • 33%
Verified reports from major news outlets such as Reuters, BBC, or official statements from the governments involved
Story
Biden Announces Israel's Three-Phase Ceasefire Proposal for Gaza, Including Six-Week Ceasefire and Hostage Release
May 31, 2024, 07:22 PM
US President Joe Biden has announced a new three-phase proposal from Israel aimed at achieving a lasting ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages held by Hamas. The proposal, which has been transmitted to Hamas through Qatar, includes an immediate six-week ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas of Gaza in the first phase. During this period, negotiations will continue to reach a permanent end to hostilities, the release of all hostages, and a humanitarian aid and prisoners swap. If negotiations extend beyond six weeks, the ceasefire will remain in place as long as talks continue. The final phase involves the reconstruction of Gaza. Biden emphasized the historic opportunity this proposal represents and urged Hamas to accept it, stating that it is time for the war to end.
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Similar markets
New ceasefire agreement • 33%
Prisoner exchange deal • 33%
No significant agreement • 33%
Successful release of hostages • 50%
No significant progress • 50%
POW swap • 33%
Peace treaty • 33%
No agreement • 34%
All rescued • 33%
Some rescued • 34%
None rescued • 33%
All hostages released • 33%
Some hostages released • 33%
No hostages released • 34%
United States • 25%
United Kingdom • 25%
Egypt • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Negotiations successful • 33%
Negotiations unsuccessful • 33%
Negotiations ongoing • 33%
Financial aid • 33%
Prisoner exchange • 33%
Other • 34%