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What will be the outcome of human rights investigations in El Salvador by 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No violations found • 25%
Minor violations reported • 25%
Significant violations reported • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Reports and statements from major human rights organizations like Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch
Story
El Salvador Achieves Record Low 114 Homicides in 2024, 1.9 Per 100,000 Rate
Jan 1, 2025, 06:41 PM
El Salvador achieved a record low of 114 homicides in 2024, marking a 26% decrease from the 154 homicides reported in 2023. This reduction is attributed to the government's Territorial Control Plan and the state of emergency, which has been in effect since March 2022. Under this regime, over 83,000 individuals have been detained, with 8,000 released as innocent, although it has drawn criticism from human rights organizations for alleged violations, including arbitrary arrests and 354 custodial deaths. President Nayib Bukele highlighted that the country now has a homicide rate of 1.9 per 100,000 inhabitants, positioning it as the safest nation in the Western Hemisphere. The decline continues a broader trend of decreasing violence in El Salvador, which had one of the world's highest homicide rates in 2015. Despite the restrictions, Bukele's high popularity persists. However, the state of emergency remains controversial, with monthly renewals by a supermajority in Congress and ongoing debates about its necessity.
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Other outcomes • 25%
Formal investigation launched • 25%
Public condemnation only • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Intervention by other countries • 25%
No international intervention • 25%
EU intervention • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
Convicted of lesser charges • 25%
Convicted of murder • 25%
Mistrial or retrial • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
All convictions • 25%
All dismissed • 25%
Some convictions • 25%
Ongoing trials • 25%
Maintain ban • 34%
Repeal ban • 33%
Modify ban • 33%
Gang identified and apprehended • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No conclusive identification • 25%
Gang identified but not apprehended • 25%
Pro-abortion rights leader elected • 25%
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Other • 25%
Anti-abortion rights leader elected • 25%
Increased sanctions on Israel • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Loan secured with Bitcoin policy change • 25%
Loan not secured • 25%
Loan secured without Bitcoin policy change • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Both found responsible • 25%
UN found responsible • 25%
NGOs found responsible • 25%
Neither found responsible • 25%
Minor Improvements • 25%
No Change • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Significant Improvements • 25%