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What will be the outcome of Friedrich Merz's ultimatum to Russia regarding Ukraine by November 15, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Russia ceases attacks • 25%
Russia continues attacks • 25%
Merz retracts ultimatum • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Reports from international monitoring organizations or credible news outlets
Story
CDU's Merz Proposes 24-Hour Ultimatum to Russia, Pledges Long-Range Taurus Missiles to Ukraine
Oct 16, 2024, 03:03 PM
German opposition leader and potential next Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has expressed his readiness to supply Ukraine with long-range Taurus missiles under specific conditions. Merz, the CDU's future chancellor candidate, insists that before delivery, Russia must be given a 24-hour ultimatum to cease its attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine. If Russia fails to comply, Merz pledges to lift restrictions on Ukraine's long-range strikes and provide the Taurus missiles without any limitations. This stance marks a significant shift from the current policies of the Scholz government, which Merz has criticized for being too appeasing towards Russia. Merz suggests that an appeal to Putin should be made to halt the attacks.
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Increased military support announced • 25%
No change in military support • 25%
Reduction in military support • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full support for demands • 25%
Partial support for demands • 25%
Rejection of demands • 25%
No official response • 25%
Initiate peace conference • 25%
Increase military aid to Ukraine • 25%
Impose new sanctions on Russia • 25%
No major action • 25%
Russia attacks Kyiv non-nuclearly • 25%
Russia does not attack Kyiv • 25%
Russia attacks another Ukrainian city • 25%
Other • 25%
Missiles supplied without conditions • 25%
Missiles supplied after ultimatum • 25%
Missiles not supplied • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ukraine joins NATO • 25%
Ukraine pursues nuclear arms • 25%
Both occur • 25%
Neither occur • 25%
Russia agrees to negotiations • 25%
Russia rejects negotiations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, further talks scheduled • 25%
Talks break down • 25%
Meeting postponed • 25%
Russia withdraws troops • 25%
Increased diplomatic tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Alice Weidel • 25%
Sara Wagenknecht • 25%
Another lawmaker • 25%
No significant policy change • 25%
Increased military support • 25%
Economic partnership • 25%
Humanitarian cooperation • 25%
No significant change • 25%