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What will be the outcome of diplomatic efforts between North and South Korea by March 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official announcements from diplomatic talks or agreements, media coverage
Story
North Korea Accuses South Korea of Drone Flights Over Pyongyang Three Times Since Last Week, Threatens Retaliation
Oct 11, 2024, 12:43 PM
North Korea has accused South Korea of flying drones over its capital, Pyongyang, three times since last week, and scattering anti-regime leaflets. North Korea's Foreign Ministry labeled the actions as military provocations and violations of its sovereignty, threatening to respond with force if such incidents recur. South Korea has denied these allegations, calling them irresponsible and dangerous. The South Korean military stated it could not confirm the claims. The situation has escalated tensions between the two countries, with North Korea putting its offensive weapons on full alert at the border and issuing a final warning to South Korea to cease drone flights. North Korea has also sent trash balloons to South Korea.
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New diplomatic agreements reached • 25%
Increased military tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
North Korea agrees to halt missile tests • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Formal peace talks • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Talks held but no agreement • 25%
Talks planned but not held • 25%
No talks planned • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations remain the same • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Successful Negotiations • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Military Tensions • 25%
No Change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Successful prevention of troop movement • 25%
No change in troop movement • 25%
North Korean troops aid Russia • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Formal peace agreement reached • 25%
Significant reduction in military activities • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions or conflict • 25%
