Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of diplomatic efforts between Israel and Houthis by December 31, 2025?
2
Israel Katz•Israel•Ismail Haniyeh•Hamas•Tehran•Katz•Yemen•Houthi•Houthis•Haniyeh•Yahya Sinwar•Gaza•Hassan Nasrallah•Lebanon
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from involved governments, reports from international diplomatic bodies
Story
Israel Katz Admits to July 31 Assassination of Hamas Leader Haniyeh in Tehran, Warns Yemen's Houthis
Dec 24, 2024, 01:00 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has publicly admitted for the first time that Israel was responsible for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader, in Tehran on July 31. Katz's acknowledgment came alongside a warning to Yemen's Houthi rebels, indicating that Israel would take similar action against their leadership. He stated that Israel would target the Houthis' strategic infrastructure and 'decapitate' their leaders, drawing parallels to the actions taken against Haniyeh in Tehran, Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, and Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon. This admission escalates tensions in the region, particularly in light of ongoing conflicts involving Hamas and the Houthis.
View original story
Similar markets
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Skirmishes • 25%
Major Escalation • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Houthi Victory • 25%
Israeli Victory • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Houthi retreat from Hodeidah • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Significant Houthi retreat • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Increased Houthi aggression • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Peace Treaty • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions on Yemen • 25%
Increased sanctions on Israel • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Successful dismantling of Houthi threat • 25%
Partial success • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Increased Houthi retaliation • 25%
Decisive Israeli victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Houthi resistance strengthens • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Escalation continues • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Continued tensions without escalation • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 33%
Ceasefire without agreement • 33%
No agreement, continued conflict • 33%