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What will be the outcome for Hezbollah's leadership following the UN's findings on Majdal Shams attack by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Leadership change • 25%
Increased support • 25%
Decreased support • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official statements and news reports
Story
UNIFIL Finds Hezbollah Responsible for Majdal Shams Terror Attack Killing 12 Children
Aug 2, 2024, 12:48 PM
An investigation by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has determined that Hezbollah was responsible for the rocket attack in Majdal Shams, northern Israel, which resulted in the deaths of 12 children. The findings were reported by Sky News Arabic and confirmed by multiple sources. The UN's findings hold Hezbollah accountable for the tragic incident, contradicting the group's previous denials of involvement. The attack has been labeled a terror incident and the findings were disclosed on August 2.
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Hezbollah admits involvement • 25%
Hezbollah denies involvement • 25%
No conclusive result • 25%
Other • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership dispute • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Interim leadership • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah steps down • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah is killed • 25%
Other • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Temporary leadership established • 25%
Leadership remains unclear • 25%
Hezbollah leaders indicted • 25%
Hezbollah fined • 25%
Hezbollah sanctioned • 25%
No legal action taken • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership structure changes • 25%
No clear leadership • 25%
Confirmed by independent investigation • 25%
Dismissed by independent investigation • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
No investigation • 25%
All commanders eliminated • 25%
Most commanders eliminated • 25%
Few commanders eliminated • 25%
No commanders eliminated • 25%
Nasrallah eliminated • 25%
Nasrallah captured • 25%
Nasrallah escapes • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Nasrallah captured • 25%
Nasrallah assassinated • 25%
Nasrallah remains free • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hezbollah confirmed as sole perpetrator • 25%
Hezbollah and another group involved • 25%
Attack attributed to another group • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%