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What will be the next significant step in the Brazil-Nicaragua diplomatic rift by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Restoration of ambassadors • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Further diplomatic expulsions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official announcements from the Brazilian and Nicaraguan governments or other credible news sources
Story
Brazil's Lula and Nicaragua's Ortega Expel Ambassadors Amid Diplomatic Rift
Aug 8, 2024, 07:20 PM
Brazil and Nicaragua are experiencing a diplomatic rift as both countries have decided to expel each other's ambassadors. Brazil's President Lula has decided to expel Nicaragua's ambassador, a move that deepens the divide between Lula and Nicaragua's leader, Daniel Ortega. In response, Nicaragua is expected to expel Brazil's ambassador on Thursday, who has already left Managua, according to Nicaragua's Vice President Murillo. The expulsion marks a significant deterioration in relations between the two traditionally allied nations.
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Establish new embassies • 25%
Close existing embassies • 25%
Reassign current ambassadors • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Relations resume • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No change • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Improved • 25%
Remained the same • 25%
Worsened • 25%
Severed • 25%
Relations remain the same • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Diplomatic ties severed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Diplomatic downgrade • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Venezuela • 25%
Cuba • 25%
Bolivia • 25%
Other • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Organization of American States • 25%
European Union • 25%
No significant action by any body • 25%
Improved relations and increased trade • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Deteriorated relations and decreased trade • 25%
Severed diplomatic and economic ties • 25%