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What will be the next major incident involving Chinese military submarines by September 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Sinking • 25%
Collision • 25%
Fire • 25%
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Reports from major news outlets or official statements from Chinese or other governments
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China's Type 041 Zhou Nuclear Submarine Sinks, WSJ Reports
Sep 26, 2024, 03:17 PM
China's newest nuclear-powered attack submarine sank in the spring, U.S. officials said, marking a significant setback for the country's military modernization efforts. The incident, reported by WSJ, occurred at a shipyard near Wuhan in late May or early June and was reportedly covered up by Chinese authorities. The submarine, identified as the first-of-its-kind Type 041 Zhou class, sank while pierside. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) confirmed the incident. The U.S. does not know if the submarine was carrying nuclear fuel at the time, but experts outside the U.S. government believe it was likely. This episode has not been previously disclosed and highlights the challenges faced by China's priority weapons programs.
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Sinking • 25%
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Resignation of senior military official • 25%
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Airspace violation • 25%
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ICBM test • 25%
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Cyber warfare simulation • 25%