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What will be the nature of U.S. policy shift under Trump regarding the hostage situation by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
Increased military action • 25%
Sanctions or economic measures • 25%
No significant policy shift • 25%
Official U.S. policy announcements or credible news reports
Story
Trump Demands Immediate Hostage Release, Warns of "All Hell to Pay" if Not Freed by January 20
Dec 2, 2024, 07:30 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has issued a stern warning to Hamas, demanding the immediate release of hostages held in Gaza and calling for an end to the conflict before he takes office. In a statement on December 2, Trump declared, "Release the hostages now!" and warned, "If the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume office as President of the United States, there will be all hell to pay in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against humanity. Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied history of the United States of America." Reports indicate that Trump is interested in brokering a deal to secure the hostages' release before his inauguration, signaling a potential shift in U.S. policy and heightened involvement in resolving the conflict.
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Sanctions imposed • 25%
Military action • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No action taken • 25%
No action • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Major diplomatic role • 25%
Minor diplomatic role • 25%
No involvement • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
New international alliances • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Increased border security • 25%
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Other outcome • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Hostages rescued by force • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Some hostages released • 25%
Hostages rescued • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%