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Market
What will be the major policy focus of Poilievre's first year as PM?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Economic reform • 25%
Cultural policy • 25%
Healthcare • 25%
Other • 25%
Official government statements and policy documents
Story
Pierre Poilievre, Conservative Party Leader, Has 92% Chance to Succeed Trudeau as Canadian PM
Jan 6, 2025, 04:14 PM
Following the resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre has emerged as the frontrunner to become the next Prime Minister of Canada. According to market odds from Kalshi and Polymarket, Poilievre has a 92% chance of assuming the role, with some sources indicating a high of 97%. The resignation of Trudeau, who has been in office for nearly a decade, marks a significant shift in Canadian politics, with Poilievre's conservative stance and opposition to policies associated with 'wokism' gaining traction among the electorate. Described as a Conservative firebrand, Poilievre's potential leadership is anticipated to focus on addressing the country's economic and cultural challenges, as highlighted by various commentators and polls.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Economy • 25%
Healthcare • 25%
Immigration • 25%
Foreign Policy • 25%
Free speech and censorship • 25%
Cryptocurrency regulation • 25%
AI development • 25%
Other emerging technologies • 25%
Tax reform • 25%
Other economic areas • 25%
Trade policy • 25%
Regulatory changes • 25%
Healthcare • 25%
Infrastructure • 25%
Immigration • 25%
Tax Reform • 25%
Financial Technology • 25%
Capital Markets • 25%
Digital Assets • 25%
Inclusion Initiatives • 25%
Tax Cuts • 25%
Infrastructure Spending • 25%
Trade Policies • 25%
Regulatory Reform • 25%
Foreign policy • 25%
Healthcare reform • 25%
Immigration policy • 25%
Tax reform • 25%
Increase spending • 25%
Reduce taxes • 25%
Increase taxes • 25%
Other • 25%
Middle East Policy • 25%
China Relations • 25%
Climate Change • 25%
Other • 25%