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What will be the magnitude of the next seismic activity caused by explosions in the Tver region by the end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 2.0 • 25%
2.0 to 2.5 • 25%
2.6 to 3.0 • 25%
More than 3.0 • 25%
Seismological data and verified news reports
Story
Ukrainian Drone Strike Hits Major Ammo Depot in Toropets, Tver Region, Triggers Massive Explosions
Sep 18, 2024, 06:55 AM
A significant Ukrainian drone strike targeted a major Russian ammunition depot in Toropets, Tver region, resulting in massive explosions and fires. The depot, known as the 107th GRAU Arsenal, housed up to 30,000 tons of various munitions, including Iskander missiles, Tochka-U missiles, and North Korean KN23 missiles. The explosions triggered seismic activity equivalent to earthquakes measuring between 2.0 and 2.8 on the Richter scale. Russian authorities have ordered the evacuation of nearby residents due to the ongoing detonations and fires. Despite claims by Russian officials that air defenses intercepted the drones, the attack has been described as one of the most successful and significant of the war. The facility, built in 2018, was designed to withstand missile strikes and nuclear explosions but suffered extensive damage. The incident underscores the strategic impact of Ukrainian drone capabilities in the ongoing conflict.
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Drone attack • 25%
Accidental detonation • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Other • 25%
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Less than 4.0 • 25%
4.0 to 4.9 • 25%
5.0 to 5.9 • 25%
6.0 or higher • 25%
Drone attack • 25%
Cyber attack • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Other • 25%
Less than 4.0 • 25%
4.0 to 4.9 • 25%
5.0 to 5.9 • 25%
6.0 or higher • 25%
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No • 50%
7.0 • 25%
7.2 • 25%
7.4 • 25%
Other • 25%
Minimal (less than $10M) • 25%
Moderate ($10M - $50M) • 25%
Severe ($50M - $100M) • 25%
Catastrophic (more than $100M) • 25%
Drone attack • 25%
Cyber attack • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Other • 25%