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What will be the level of Hezbollah's influence in southern Lebanon by end of 2024?
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France•Lebanon•Hezbollah•Litani River•Lebanese Armed Forces•LAF•Israel•Lebanese government•Breaking Defense•Lebanese Christians•Lebanese army•French•Emmanuel Macron
Resolution / Starting Odds
Unchanged or increased • 33%
Slightly decreased • 33%
Significantly decreased • 33%
Reports from credible news sources, statements from Lebanese and international observers
Story
France Offers Military Support to Lebanon Against Hezbollah in Southern Border Area
Jun 23, 2024, 07:20 AM
France, along with several unnamed countries, has reportedly offered military assistance and support to Lebanon, including airstrikes and advisors, if Lebanon decides to launch a security operation in the south of the country to push Hezbollah back to the Litani River. Discussions are ongoing to increase the presence of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in the southern border area with Israel. France has communicated to members of the Lebanese government its readiness to support the LAF in securing the southern border and countering Hezbollah's influence in the region. This move is seen as an effort by France to protect Israel, with some sources, including Breaking Defense, suggesting that France aims to arm Lebanese Christians and the Lebanese army to wage war against Hezbollah. French President Emmanuel Macron's involvement has been noted, with some critics arguing that he still considers Lebanon a French colony.
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Increased influence • 25%
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