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What will be the impact of UniCredit's stake increase on Commerzbank's leadership by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
No change in leadership • 25%
Change in CEO • 25%
Change in board composition • 25%
Major restructuring announced • 25%
Official announcements from Commerzbank, financial news outlets
Story
UniCredit Raises Stake in Commerzbank to 28% with 9.5% Direct Shares and 18.5% in Derivatives, Heightening Takeover Speculation
Dec 18, 2024, 08:35 AM
UniCredit has increased its stake in Commerzbank to approximately 28%, enhancing Chief Executive Officer Andrea Orcel's pursuit of the German lender. This move, which involves a combination of direct ownership and derivatives, raises speculation about a potential takeover of Germany's second-largest private bank. The Italian bank's stake now consists of about 9.5% in direct shares and around 18.5% through derivative instruments. The increase in ownership is seen as a strategic maneuver amidst ongoing discussions regarding the future of Commerzbank, particularly in light of challenges facing the German economy. UniCredit has expressed ambitions to potentially raise its stake to 29.9% in the future.
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Becomes largest private bank • 25%
Remains second-largest private bank • 25%
Other • 25%
Drops to third-largest • 25%
Launched a takeover bid • 25%
Increased stake to 30% without takeover • 25%
Maintained stake at 28% • 25%
Reduced stake below 28% • 25%
Opposed to UniCredit's stake • 25%
Supportive of UniCredit's stake • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Initiated defensive measures • 25%
No acquisition interest • 25%
Continued acquisition interest • 25%
Other developments • 25%
Partnership or alliance • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Approved full stake increase • 33%
Approved partial stake increase • 33%
Denied stake increase • 34%
Partial merger or partnership • 25%
Stake reduction or divestment • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Full takeover of Commerzbank • 25%