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What will be the impact of the spending bill on federal services by January 10, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No impact • 25%
Minor delays in services • 25%
Major disruptions in services • 25%
Services halted completely • 25%
Reports from government agencies or major news outlets
Story
Musk, Trump, and Ramaswamy Oppose 1,547-Page Spending Bill, Heightening Shutdown Risk
Dec 18, 2024, 10:56 PM
Elon Musk and President-elect Donald Trump have publicly opposed a bipartisan 1,547-page spending bill that aims to fund the government until mid-March and avert a shutdown. Musk criticized the bill on social media, stating "This bill should not pass," and claimed "We're funding bioweapon labs in this bill!" He also threatened to fund primary opponents against Republicans who support the bill. Vivek Ramaswamy joined Musk in opposing the legislation. Trump's opposition has caused House Speaker Mike Johnson to reconsider the bill and consider alternative options. Their stance has increased the likelihood of a shutdown, raising concerns about potential impacts on federal workers and services during the holiday season.
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Other outcome • 25%
Fails to pass • 25%
Passes with significant amendments • 25%
Passes with all provisions intact • 25%
Bill passes without debt ceiling measures • 25%
Bill fails • 25%
Alternative bill passed • 25%
Bill passes with debt ceiling measures • 25%
Government operates normally • 25%
Temporary funding extension • 25%
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Passes with pay raise • 25%
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Supportive • 25%
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Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant comment • 25%
No significant impact on deficit • 25%
Significant increase in deficit • 25%
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Moderate increase in deficit • 25%
Replaced by 'clean' bill • 25%
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Amended and passed • 25%
Passed as is • 25%
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Passed • 25%
No action • 25%
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Rejected • 25%
Still Blocked • 25%
Passed without Amendments • 25%
Passed with Amendments • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Passed with Musk's influence • 25%
Passed without changes • 25%
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Farmers' aid included • 25%
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Pay raise for Congress included • 25%
Disaster aid included • 25%