Loading...
Market
What will be the impact of Norway's border fence decision on migrant influx by December 31, 2026?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant decrease in migrant influx • 25%
Moderate decrease in migrant influx • 25%
No significant change in migrant influx • 25%
Increase in migrant influx • 25%
Migration statistics from Norwegian government or reputable news sources
Story
Norway Considers 123-mile Border Fence with Russia to Prevent Migrant Influx, Hybrid Warfare
Sep 29, 2024, 03:43 PM
Norway is considering constructing a fence along its 123-mile border with Russia. The potential move, as a minister said, is inspired by Finland's similar project and aims to prevent an influx of refugees, similar to the 2015 incident when 5,000 migrants crossed from Russia to Norway at the only border point. The fence is also seen as a measure to counter possible hybrid warfare tactics by Moscow, which could involve the use of migrants.
View original story
Similar markets
Full border fence • 25%
Partial border fence • 25%
No border fence • 25%
Undecided • 25%
Decrease in activity • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in activity • 25%
Significant increase in activity • 25%
By end of 2025 • 25%
By end of 2026 • 25%
After 2026 • 25%
Not completed • 25%
Prevent migrant crossings • 25%
Security concerns • 25%
Hybrid warfare prevention • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant decrease in migration flows • 25%
Moderate decrease in migration flows • 25%
No significant change in migration flows • 25%
Increase in migration flows • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Bill remains in effect with no changes • 25%
Bill is overturned • 25%
Bill is modified to address human rights concerns • 25%
Bill is extended beyond 2024 • 25%
Fully implemented • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Rolled back • 25%
Decrease of more than 25% • 25%
Decrease of 10-25% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase • 25%