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What will be the impact of cartel violence on the Mexican political process by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Decrease in political assassinations • 25%
Increase in political assassinations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other impacts • 25%
Reports from international organizations or credible news sources
Story
Marco Rubio Considers Military Action and Terrorist Designation for Mexican Cartels, Advocates Cooperation with Mexico
Jan 15, 2025, 10:46 PM
Marco Rubio, nominated by President-elect Donald Trump as Secretary of State, has stated that designating Mexican drug cartels as transnational terrorist organizations and considering military action against them are options under consideration. Rubio emphasized the need for cooperation with the Mexican government to combat these groups, which he described as 'terrorizing' both countries. During his confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Rubio acknowledged that the cartels are 'sophisticated enterprises' involved in human trafficking, drug trafficking, and migrant smuggling. He described the potential designation of cartels as terrorist organizations as an 'imperfect tool' but did not rule it out, highlighting the cartels' operational control over large swathes of the U.S.-Mexico border. Rubio also noted the impact of cartel violence on the Mexican political process, mentioning the assassination of candidates and journalists.
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Neutral • 25%
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Supportive • 25%
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New educational policies • 25%
Arrests and prosecutions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increased security presence • 25%
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Improved relations • 25%
New diplomatic agreement • 25%
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Unchanged cooperation • 25%
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Deteriorated relations • 25%
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One faction emerges dominant • 25%
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Cartel leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Cartel splits into multiple independent groups • 25%
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No change • 25%
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No significant change in organized crime • 25%
Significant reduction in organized crime • 25%
Increase in organized crime • 25%
Moderate reduction in organized crime • 25%
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Minor impact • 25%
Significant disruption • 25%
Increased operations • 25%
Stricter policies • 25%
More lenient policies • 25%
Policy changes announced but not implemented • 25%
No change • 25%
Increase in violence • 25%
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Moderate reduction in violence • 25%
No change in violence levels • 25%
Increased penalties for violence against agents • 25%
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Changes in immigration policy • 25%
Increase in border security • 25%