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What will be the impact of Biden's debate performance on his polling numbers by August 15?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant drop (>5%) • 33%
Minor drop (1-5%) • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Major polling organizations like Gallup, Pew Research, or RealClearPolitics
Story
Biden's Campaign in Crisis After Disastrous Debate Against Trump, CNN Declares Trump Winner
Jun 29, 2024, 12:07 PM
President Joe Biden's re-election campaign faces a crisis following a faltering performance in the first TV debate against former President Donald Trump. Concerns about Biden's age and mental fitness were amplified after the debate, which many observers described as disastrous for the incumbent. Democratic campaign operatives and 'Obamaworld' insiders expressed their worries, with some suggesting Biden has been given an ultimatum of one week to revive his campaign. Barack Obama also weighed in on Biden's performance, and a body language expert described Biden as 'like a dead man walking.' Despite the poor showing, Biden has given no indication he will drop out of the race. Meanwhile, CNN declared Trump the winner, and some commentators noted that the debate rules, which included turning off microphones, may have inadvertently worked in Trump's favor.
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Similar markets
Shift towards Trump • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Shift towards Biden • 33%
No significant change • 25%
Major campaign strategy change • 25%
New candidate enters race • 25%
Biden withdraws • 25%
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Negative impact • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
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No significant change • 25%
Increases • 33%
Decreases • 33%
Stays the same • 34%
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