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What will be the conclusion of the Baltic cable damage investigation by September 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yi Peng 3 held responsible • 25%
Kremlin involvement confirmed • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Other conclusion • 25%
Official investigation reports or announcements from NATO or involved countries
Story
Chinese Ship Yi Peng 3 Suspected of Sabotaging Baltic Cables, NATO Investigates
Nov 27, 2024, 03:31 PM
A Chinese bulk carrier, the Yi Peng 3, is suspected of deliberately severing two critical data cables in the Baltic Sea by dragging its anchor along the seabed for over 100 miles. The incident, which occurred on November 17-18, damaged cables linking Finland, Germany, Sweden, and Lithuania. The ship, loaded with Russian fertilizer, departed Russia and is now surrounded by NATO warships as part of an international probe into suspected sabotage. Investigators believe the action might have been orchestrated by the Kremlin, with the captain of the Chinese-owned vessel being a focus of the investigation.
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Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
Other state actor • 25%
Non-state actor • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Anchoring • 25%
Trawling • 25%
Other • 25%
Accidental digging • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Other • 25%
Sweden-Russia diplomatic resolution • 25%
Sweden-China diplomatic resolution • 25%
NATO intervention • 25%
Unresolved • 25%
Anchoring • 25%
Trawling • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Other • 25%
Intentional sabotage • 25%
Accidental damage by anchoring • 25%
Accidental damage by trawling • 25%
Other cause • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yi Peng 3 found responsible • 25%
Another vessel found responsible • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Unknown • 25%
A specific country • 25%
A private vessel • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Resolved with no tensions • 25%
Resolved with minor tensions • 25%
Ongoing significant tensions • 25%
Escalated into major conflict • 25%