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What will be Russia's oil production compliance status with OPEC+ quotas by end of Q3 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Fully compliant • 33%
Partially compliant • 33%
Non-compliant • 33%
OPEC+ production reports or official data from the Russian Energy Ministry
Story
Russia's May Oil Production Exceeds OPEC+ Quota Despite 344K Barrel Reduction, Deepest Curbs in Over a Year
Jun 13, 2024, 01:07 PM
In May, Russia reduced its oil output by 344,000 barrels per day, producing 9.393 million barrels per day, which fell short of their target. Based on OPEC secondary sources, Russia's crude production fell by 119,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 9.182 million barrels per day. Despite the reduction, Russia's production was still above the OPEC+ quota target of 9.049 million barrels per day. The Russian Energy Ministry acknowledged the overproduction and committed to resolving the issue in June. They also announced plans to compensate for the crude overproduction through September. This marks the deepest curbs in over a year.
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High compliance (>90%) • 34%
Moderate compliance (70-90%) • 33%
Low compliance (<70%) • 33%
High compliance (80%+) • 33%
Moderate compliance (50-79%) • 33%
Low compliance (<50%) • 33%
Decrease in oil exports • 33%
No change in oil exports • 33%
Increase in oil exports through alternative channels • 34%
Successful reduction in exports • 33%
Partial reduction • 34%
No significant change • 33%
0-10% reduction • 25%
11-25% reduction • 25%
26-50% reduction • 25%
More than 50% reduction • 25%
Yes, waivers applied • 50%
No, waivers not applied • 50%