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What will be Moldova's geopolitical alignment post-referendum by October 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Aligns more with EU • 25%
Aligns more with Russia • 25%
Maintains neutrality • 25%
Other • 25%
Analysis from geopolitical experts and reports from international organizations
Story
Moldovans Approve Referendum for EU Membership by Narrow Margin with 98.47% Votes Counted
Oct 21, 2024, 06:37 AM
In a crucial referendum, Moldovans voted on whether to pursue membership in the European Union, signaling a shift away from Russian influence. The referendum aimed to enshrine an 'irreversible' commitment to join the EU in the country's Constitution. With 98.47% of votes counted, 50.09% were in favor and 49.91% against. The narrow victory indicates Moldova's intention to align more closely with the EU, marking a significant step for the former Soviet republic. Moldova has approved the referendum and will begin EU accession talks.
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Pro-EU alignment • 25%
Pro-Russian alignment • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Other alignment • 25%
Proceed with EU accession • 25%
Delay decision • 25%
Abandon EU accession • 25%
Other response • 25%
Closer to EU • 25%
Closer to Russia • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Other alliances • 25%
Moldova votes to join the EU • 25%
Moldova votes against joining the EU • 25%
Referendum results contested • 25%
Referendum postponed • 25%
Moldova joins EU • 25%
Moldova rejects EU membership • 25%
Referendum annulled • 25%
No decision made • 25%
Closer ties with EU • 33%
Closer ties with Russia • 33%
Neutral stance • 34%
Closer ties with EU • 25%
Closer ties with Russia • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Uncertain/Other • 25%
Result upheld • 25%
Recount ordered • 25%
Result overturned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Pro-European • 33%
Pro-Russian • 33%
Neutral/No significant change • 34%