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What will be Matt Gaetz's political alignment within the Republican Party by the end of 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Continues strong MAGA alignment • 25%
Moderates stance • 25%
Aligns with McCarthy faction • 25%
Other • 25%
Public statements, voting records, and news reports from credible media outlets
Story
Matt Gaetz Wins Primary Despite $3M McCarthy Challenge and Past Scandals
Aug 21, 2024, 01:49 AM
Matt Gaetz has emerged victorious in his primary race despite significant efforts by allies of Kevin McCarthy to unseat him. Reports indicate that McCarthy-aligned groups spent over $3 million in an attempt to challenge Gaetz, but the outcome of the primary did not differ significantly from Gaetz's previous election results. Gaetz, known for his strong support within the MAGA movement, has been involved in a personal feud with McCarthy, partly due to Gaetz's role in McCarthy's removal as Speaker. Gaetz's victory, despite past sex scandals, is seen as a blow to McCarthy's influence within the Republican Party.
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Re-elected to Congress • 25%
Runs for different office • 25%
Resigns or removed • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Attorney General • 25%
Remains in Congress • 25%
Resigns from Congress • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased significantly • 25%
Increased slightly • 25%
Remained the same • 25%
Decreased • 25%
Official role in Trump-Vance administration • 25%
Leader of a new political organization • 25%
Political commentator or analyst • 25%
Other • 25%
Remains in Congress • 25%
Resigns • 25%
Removed from office • 25%
Runs for higher office • 25%
Resigns • 25%
Re-elected • 25%
Defeated in re-election • 25%
Expelled from Congress • 25%
Alliance with Trump-Vance administration • 25%
Alliance with other Republican leaders • 25%
Alliance with non-political entities • 25%
No major alliances • 25%
Private Sector Job • 25%
Political Consulting • 25%
Media Role • 25%
Other • 25%
Attorney General • 25%
Other federal position • 25%
State-level position • 25%
No new political role • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Takes seat as planned • 25%
Announces resignation • 25%
Seat remains vacant • 25%
Other outcome • 25%