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What impact will Lula's health have on the Brazilian legislative agenda by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No impact • 25%
Minor delays • 25%
Major legislative changes • 25%
Other impacts • 25%
Analysis from political commentators and legislative records
Story
Brazil's Lula Has Second Successful Surgery, Expected to Leave Hospital Next Week
Dec 12, 2024, 10:04 PM
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva underwent a successful second surgical procedure to stop bleeding in his skull, his medical team announced. The operation, an embolization of the middle meningeal artery, was performed Thursday morning at the Hospital Sírio-Libanês in São Paulo to prevent new hemorrhages. Later that evening, at 7 p.m., doctors removed a drain from his head without complications. The medical team reported that the hemorrhage did not affect Lula's brain and that he is neurologically 'perfect.' Lula is recovering in the intensive care unit, where he remains lucid, cognitively healthy, and conversing normally. He has been actively engaged in government affairs despite his hospitalization. Minister Alexandre Padilha noted that the president has been signing government acts from the ICU, and Minister Rui Costa stated that Lula is 'very focused' and requesting updates on the government's legislative agenda in Congress. First Lady Janja Lula da Silva shared that the president is in good spirits and is expected to return home soon. Lula has received visits from his children and grandchildren during his hospital stay. Doctors anticipate that he will leave intensive care on Friday and could be discharged from the hospital next week.
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No significant impact • 25%
Calls for leadership change • 25%
Increased political uncertainty • 25%
Increased political stability • 25%
Permanent change in leadership • 25%
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Other political adjustments • 25%
Temporary transfer of power • 25%
Negative impact with decreased support • 25%
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No appearances • 25%
No change in schedule • 25%
Fully recovered • 25%
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Recovering with some restrictions • 25%
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Partial recovery with ongoing treatment • 25%
Full recovery • 25%
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Retirement due to health • 25%
Partial recovery with ongoing treatment • 25%
Health complications arise • 25%
Partial recovery with ongoing treatment • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deterioration requiring further intervention • 25%
Full recovery • 25%
Partially recovered • 25%
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Ongoing monitoring required • 25%
Declared fully recovered • 25%