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Market
What immediate actions will Russia take following the International Court of Arbitration ruling on the Kerch Strait dispute within 3 months of the ruling?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Appeal the ruling • 25%
Comply with the ruling • 25%
Ignore the ruling • 25%
Other • 25%
Verified reports from international news agencies and official statements
Story
Ukraine and Russia Clash at The Hague Over Kerch Strait Maritime Law Violations
Sep 23, 2024, 12:00 PM
Ukraine and Russia have clashed at the International Court of Arbitration in The Hague over a long-running dispute regarding access to coastal waters around the annexed Crimea peninsula. Hearings on Russia's alleged violation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea began on September 23 and will continue until October 5, after which public information about the hearings will be published. Ukraine accuses Russia of flouting maritime law by attempting to maintain control over the Kerch Strait, a strategic waterway between mainland Russia and Crimea. Ukraine also argues that the Crimean Bridge was deliberately built low to restrict international shipping. Russia has requested the arbitration court to dismiss all of Ukraine's claims.
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Sanctions against Russia • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military actions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Dismantle the bridge • 25%
Strengthen security • 25%
Ignore the ruling • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Ukraine wins • 25%
Russia wins • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
No decision • 25%
Another missile strike • 25%
Naval engagement • 25%
Drone attack • 25%
Other • 25%
Resumes peace talks • 25%
Imposes new sanctions • 25%
Seeks international mediation • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military support to Ukraine • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Full-scale re-invasion of Ukraine • 25%
Defensive stance within Russia • 25%
Partial re-deployment to Ukraine • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Additional military incursions • 25%
Cyberattacks • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Formation of a new battalion • 25%
Deployment of existing naval units • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase military action • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Impose martial law • 25%
Other • 25%