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What changes will occur in IDF military presence in southern Lebanon by Dec 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in troop numbers • 25%
Decrease in troop numbers • 25%
Troop numbers remain the same • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Official statements from the IDF or the Israeli government, reports from international news agencies
Story
IDF Fires Warning Shots at Suspected Hezbollah Vehicles Near Kfar Kila After Ceasefire Begins
Nov 27, 2024, 07:45 AM
Under the directive of the political echelon, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced that a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon took effect today at 04:00 local time on Wednesday. IDF troops remain stationed in southern Lebanon in accordance with the agreement. However, in the past hour, IDF forces identified several vehicles carrying suspected Hezbollah members in a prohibited area near the border town of Kfar Kila. The IDF fired warning shots to prevent the suspects from reaching the restricted zone, prompting them to withdraw. The Israeli air force is on high alert and prepared to operate throughout Lebanon, and air defense systems are maintaining high readiness.
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Similar markets
Beirut • 25%
Southern Lebanon • 25%
Northern Lebanon • 25%
No specific focus • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah maintains current strength • 25%
IDF withdraws without major impact • 25%
Other • 25%
IDF takes full control • 25%
Hezbollah retains control • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal of IDF • 25%
Ongoing operations without major change • 25%
Escalation to full-scale conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Continued presence with reduced activity • 25%
Escalation of operations • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah launches successful retaliation • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Significant reduction in Hezbollah presence • 25%
Stalemate with no major changes • 25%
Hezbollah regains strength • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased conflict • 33%
Stalemate • 33%
Peaceful resolution • 33%
