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Outcome of Israeli Military Shift to Lebanon by December 31, 2024
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased conflict • 33%
Stalemate • 33%
Peaceful resolution • 33%
Official military reports or credible news sources
Story
Netanyahu: Intense Fighting in Rafah Nears End, Focus to Shift to Lebanon, Targeted Operations Planned
Jun 23, 2024, 10:42 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the intense phase of fighting against Hamas in Gaza is nearing its end, particularly in the southern city of Rafah. However, Netanyahu emphasized that this does not signify the end of the war in Gaza. Once the intense fighting concludes, Israel plans to shift its military focus to the northern border with Lebanon to confront Hezbollah. Netanyahu also mentioned that Israel will focus on targeted operations against Hamas. This announcement marks Netanyahu's first interview with Israeli media since the October 7 attacks, and it comes more than eight months into the devastating conflict. He made these remarks during an interview with Channel 14.
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Major military victory for Israel • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Major military victory for Hezbollah • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Continued occupation • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel achieves significant military objectives • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Successful in neutralizing Hezbollah threat • 25%
Limited success with ongoing threats • 25%
No significant impact on Hezbollah • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant Hezbollah losses • 25%
Minor Hezbollah losses • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah gains territory • 25%
Significant Israeli gains • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Significant Hezbollah gains • 25%
Operation called off • 25%
Hezbollah infrastructure significantly damaged • 25%
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah eliminated • 25%
Minimal impact on Hezbollah • 25%
Operation aborted • 25%
Successful operation with minimal casualties • 25%
Successful operation with significant casualties • 25%
Operation fails • 25%
Operation does not occur • 25%
Successful with minimal casualties • 25%
Successful with significant casualties • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Failure • 25%
Successful with minimal resistance • 25%
Successful with significant resistance • 25%
Unsuccessful and withdrawn • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Israel withdraws without a cease-fire • 25%
Israel withdraws with a cease-fire • 25%
Israel continues the offensive • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Full-Scale War • 25%
Ongoing Skirmishes • 25%
Peace Treaty • 25%