Loading...
Market
Trump endorsement affects House Speaker vote outcome by January 10, 2025?
3
Mike Johnson•House•Congress•Republican•Democrats•Johnson•Thomas Massie•Kentucky•Ralph Norman•South Carolina•Keith Self•Texas•Tom Emmer•Jim Jordan•Byron Donalds•Donald Trump
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Analysis of the official voting results and public statements from voting representatives.
Story
Mike Johnson Falls Short in First Round of House Speaker Vote as Three Republicans Defect Despite Trump Endorsement
Jan 3, 2025, 06:32 PM
Mike Johnson, the current House Speaker, failed to secure enough votes to retain his position in the first round of voting for the 119th Congress. With a narrow Republican majority of 219 to 215 Democrats, Johnson needed 218 votes to win. However, three Republican representatives, Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Ralph Norman of South Carolina, and Keith Self of Texas, voted for alternative candidates, Tom Emmer, Jim Jordan, and Byron Donalds respectively, leaving Johnson short of the required majority. The vote marks a significant challenge for Johnson, who was endorsed by President-elect Donald Trump, as the House will continue to vote until a speaker is elected.
View original story
Similar markets
Byron Donalds wins • 25%
No winner on first ballot • 25%
Another candidate wins • 25%
Mike Johnson wins • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Another Republican candidate • 25%
No decision made • 25%
Democratic candidate • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
No Speaker elected on January 3, 2025 • 25%
Mike Johnson elected on first ballot • 25%
Another candidate elected • 25%
Mike Johnson elected after multiple ballots • 25%
Current Speaker • 25%
A Republican Member • 25%
A Democratic Member • 25%
Other • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
Kevin McCarthy • 25%
Hakeem Jeffries • 25%
Other • 25%
Mike Johnson elected on subsequent ballot • 25%
Democrat elected • 25%
Another Republican elected • 25%
Mike Johnson elected on first ballot • 25%
Other • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
Byron Donalds • 25%
Kevin McCarthy • 25%