Harris and Trump Intensify Campaigns in Battleground States as Trump Leads by 0.2% with 85% Chance

Nov 3, 2024, 06:08 PM

With less than a week to Election Day, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are intensifying their campaigns in battleground states to win over undecided voters, including independents. Recent polls show a tight race, with Harris leading in four swing states (Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia) and Trump ahead in Arizona. The race is tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan. According to NBC News, Harris leads among early voters by 7 points, while Trump has a 16-point lead among those planning to vote on Election Day. The RealClearPolitics average shows Trump leading the popular vote by 0.2%, which, based on Silver's model, gives Trump an 85% chance of winning. Late undecided voters are breaking strongly for Harris, with a 55-44 percent split. However, Harris has likely lost Michigan, where she has lost around 70,000-100,000 of the Muslim vote.