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Seat distribution outcome of July 4th General Election
5
Nigel Farage•Reform UK•Conservatives•Labour•YouGov•Reform•Farage•General Election•Rishi Sunak•Survation•Sunak•Keir Starmer
Resolution / Starting Odds
Labour majority • 25%
Conservative majority • 25%
Reform UK majority • 25%
No overall majority • 25%
Official election results published by the UK Electoral Commission
Story
Nigel Farage's Reform UK Overtakes Conservatives at 19% (+1) Ahead of July 4th Election
Jun 15, 2024, 11:50 AM
Nigel Farage's Reform UK has overtaken the Conservatives in recent opinion polls, positioning itself as the main opposition to Labour. A YouGov poll shows Reform at 19% (+1), surpassing the Conservatives at 18%. Farage has declared himself the 'leader of the opposition' and anticipates gaining more than six million votes in the upcoming General Election on July 4th. Rishi Sunak has warned that voting for Reform UK would effectively hand a 'blank cheque' to Labour, which currently stands at 41% in the polls. The latest poll by Survation predicts a significant defeat for the Conservatives, with Labour projected to win 456 seats, the Conservatives just 72, and Reform UK gaining 7 seats. Amidst this political upheaval, Sunak has vowed to remain an MP for five years, regardless of the election outcome. Farage has also challenged Labour leader Keir Starmer to a head-to-head debate, emphasizing his party's focus on immigration issues.
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Labour • 25%
Reform UK • 25%
Conservatives • 25%
Liberal Democrats • 25%
Conservative Party majority • 25%
Labour Party majority • 25%
Hung Parliament • 25%
Other • 25%
Labour majority • 33%
Conservative majority • 33%
No overall majority • 33%
Conservative Party wins majority • 25%
Labour Party wins majority • 25%
No overall majority • 25%
Other parties win majority • 25%
Labour majority • 60%
Conservative majority • 10%
Hung Parliament • 30%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Labour Party • 25%
Conservative Party • 25%
Liberal Democrats • 25%
Other • 25%
Labour wins majority • 25%
Labour forms coalition • 25%
Labour loses but increases seats • 25%
Labour loses with no significant gains • 25%