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Russia's shadow fleet reduced by 50% by June 30, 2025 due to EU sanctions?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from maritime tracking services or major news outlets detailing the reduction in Russia's shadow fleet
Story
EU Targets Russia's Shadow Fleet in 15th Sanctions Package
Dec 11, 2024, 03:03 PM
The European Union has reached a preliminary agreement on a 15th package of sanctions against Russia in response to its ongoing aggression in Ukraine. EU ambassadors have approved measures targeting Russia's 'shadow fleet' of ships used to bypass the G7 price cap on seaborne oil, as well as individual sanctions and restrictions on vessels from third countries acting in Russia's interests. This new package expands existing sanctions and aims to counter efforts to circumvent them. The agreement, announced by the Hungarian EU presidency, comes after initial reports of a failure to reach a consensus among EU envoys, highlighting the complexity of the negotiations.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Minor reduction in shadow fleet operations • 25%
Significant reduction in shadow fleet operations • 25%
Increase in shadow fleet operations • 25%
No noticeable impact on shadow fleet operations • 25%
0-5 countries • 25%
11-15 countries • 25%
More than 15 countries • 25%
6-10 countries • 25%
Moderate reduction • 25%
Significant reduction in operations • 25%
No impact • 25%
Increase in covert operations • 25%
Oil spill • 25%
No major incident • 25%
Detainment due to violations • 25%
Collision/Accident • 25%
0-10 • 25%
31 or more • 25%
21-30 • 25%
11-20 • 25%