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Market
Repopulation rate of evacuated Rafah areas by the end of 2024
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
0-25% • 25%
26-50% • 25%
51-75% • 25%
76-100% • 25%
Governmental or non-governmental population reports or credible news sources.
Story
IDF Evacuates 100,000 from Rafah, Sets Up Expanded Humanitarian Zone
May 6, 2024, 08:25 AM
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have initiated a large-scale evacuation of approximately 100,000 civilians from eastern Rafah, in preparation for a military operation aimed at targeting Hamas in the southern Gaza city. The evacuation encompasses several neighborhoods near the Israeli border and includes the expanded humanitarian zone in al-Mawasi and parts of Khan Yunis and central Gaza. The IDF is employing various communication methods such as flyers, SMS, phone calls, and media broadcasts to urge residents to relocate to this zone, which is equipped with field hospitals and increased supplies to accommodate the evacuees.
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Less than 100,000 • 25%
100,000 to 300,000 • 25%
300,000 to 500,000 • 25%
More than 500,000 • 25%
Significant displacement • 25%
Return to pre-crisis living conditions • 25%
Increase in international aid • 25%
Persistent humanitarian crisis • 25%
Continued offensive • 33%
Ceasefire • 33%
Significant reduction in operations • 33%
Less than 50% • 33%
50% to 75% • 33%
More than 75% • 34%
Full control of Rafah • 33%
Partial control of Rafah • 33%
Withdrawal without control • 34%
Decisive Israeli Victory • 33%
Stalemate • 33%
Hamas retains strong presence • 34%
1-10 • 25%
11-20 • 25%
21-30 • 25%
More than 30 • 25%
0-25% • 25%
26-50% • 25%
51-75% • 25%
76-100% • 25%
