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Market
Public support for Trump on hush money conviction by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Republican Party • 25%
Independent public figures • 25%
No significant support • 25%
Other political parties • 25%
Public statements and endorsements in media or social media
Story
Judge Merchan Upholds Trump's Hush Money Conviction Despite Immunity Claim
Dec 17, 2024, 02:14 AM
On Monday, a New York judge rejected President-elect Donald Trump's bid to have his hush money conviction dismissed, ruling that the U.S. Supreme Court's July decision on presidential immunity does not apply to his case. Judge Juan Merchan determined that the evidence against Trump pertains to unofficial conduct that is not protected by presidential immunity. The conviction, stemming from a May verdict related to a 2016 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, therefore stands.
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Similar markets
Evenly Split Opinion • 25%
Majority Support Conviction • 25%
Majority Oppose Conviction • 25%
Low Public Awareness • 25%
Conviction Upheld • 25%
Pardon Granted • 25%
Conviction Reduced • 25%
Conviction Overturned • 25%
Other • 25%
Mitch McConnell • 25%
Kevin McCarthy • 25%
Ron DeSantis • 25%
70% or more • 25%
30% to 49% • 25%
Less than 30% • 25%
50% to 69% • 25%
Majority support conviction • 25%
No significant public reaction • 25%
Evenly divided opinion • 25%
Majority oppose conviction • 25%
