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Primary reason for any delay in Israel's next military operation against Iran by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Intelligence leaks • 25%
Political negotiations • 25%
Military readiness • 25%
Other • 25%
Credible news reports or official statements from Israeli officials
Story
Asif William Rahman, 34, Pleads Guilty to Leaking Israel's Strike Plans on Iran, Faces Up to 20 Years
Jan 17, 2025, 08:05 PM
Asif William Rahman, a 34-year-old former CIA analyst who had been employed by the agency since 2016 and held a top-secret security clearance, has pleaded guilty to leaking classified documents detailing Israel's military preparations for a retaliatory strike against Iran. Rahman admitted to accessing and printing two top-secret documents on October 17, 2024, which he then photographed and transmitted to individuals not authorized to receive them. The documents, which surfaced on social media, described Israel's plans to attack Iran in response to Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1, 2024. Rahman's actions led to a delay in Israel's planned retaliatory strike, which was eventually carried out later in October. He pleaded guilty to two counts of willful retention and transmission of classified information related to the national defense and faces up to 20 years in prison, though a plea deal suggests a sentence of 5 to 6.5 years. Sentencing is scheduled for May 15, 2025.
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Military logistics • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Leaked plans • 25%
Other • 25%
International diplomatic concerns • 25%
Other • 25%
Production issues • 25%
Political opposition in the U.S. • 25%
External Political Pressure • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
Hamas Demands • 25%
Internal Israeli Opposition • 25%
Modified • 25%
Carried out as planned • 25%
Delayed further • 25%
Cancelled • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Other • 25%
Intelligence misclassification • 25%
Civilian aircraft concerns • 25%
Strike is canceled • 25%
Strike occurs but is unsuccessful • 25%
Strike occurs and is successful • 25%
Strike is postponed indefinitely • 25%
Hostage Release Issues • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire Terms • 25%
Air strikes on Iranian targets • 25%
No military action • 25%
Naval blockade • 25%
Cyber attack • 25%