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Primary Outcome of Ceasefire Violations in Lebanon by Apr 30, 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Renewed ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
International mediation efforts • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Official announcements from the involved parties or credible international news agencies.
Story
Israel Fires Warning Shots at Suspects in Southern Lebanon Amid Ceasefire Accusations
Nov 28, 2024, 11:15 AM
Israel and Hezbollah have accused each other of violating a recently agreed ceasefire in southern Lebanon. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that they identified several suspects, some with vehicles, entering no-go zones in southern Lebanon, which they considered a violation of the ceasefire agreement. The IDF stated that it fired warning shots toward these individuals and remains ready to act across Lebanese territory to enforce the ceasefire. The IDF also detained four suspects who approached their troops in southern Lebanon. In response, the Lebanese army accused Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement several times since it came into effect, stating that they are monitoring these violations in coordination with the relevant authorities.
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Hezbollah • 33%
Israel • 33%
No violation occurs • 34%
Ceasefire holds completely • 25%
Minor violations occur • 25%
Major conflict resumes • 25%
Ceasefire officially ends • 25%
Hezbollah retreats beyond Litani River • 25%
Ceasefire is maintained without violations • 25%
Significant military confrontation occurs • 25%
Diplomatic resolution achieved • 25%
Ceasefire in both Gaza and Lebanon • 25%
Ceasefire in Gaza only • 25%
Ceasefire in Lebanon only • 25%
No ceasefire in either region • 25%
Increased stability • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Withdrawal of troops • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no violations • 25%
Minor violations reported • 25%
Major violations reported • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Hezbollah disarmament • 25%
Israeli territorial gains • 25%
IDF active enforcement in Lebanon • 25%
Israeli Air Force operations in Lebanese airspace • 25%
Return of displaced civilians • 25%
Other conditions • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Minor violations • 25%
Major conflict resumes • 25%
Negotiated peace agreement • 25%
Hezbollah offensive actions • 25%
IDF defensive actions • 25%
Accidental cross-border incidents • 25%
Other • 25%