Loading...
Market
Primary focus of public debate after December 2024 NYC subway incident by March 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Subway safety • 25%
Illegal immigration • 25%
Mental health and substance abuse • 25%
Police response • 25%
Media analysis and public opinion polls
Story
Sebastian Zapeta-Calil Charged With First-Degree Murder and Arson After Setting Woman on Fire on NYC Subway on December 22, 2024
Dec 24, 2024, 07:42 PM
Sebastian Zapeta-Calil, a 33-year-old Guatemalan migrant, has been charged with first-degree murder and arson following the death of a woman set on fire while she was sleeping on a New York City subway train. The incident occurred on December 22, 2024, when Zapeta allegedly used a lighter to ignite the victim's clothing before fanning the flames with his shirt. Authorities confirmed that Zapeta had been previously deported under the Trump administration in 2018 but re-entered the U.S. illegally. He was living at a men's shelter in Brooklyn at the time of the attack and reportedly admitted to being intoxicated during the incident. The victim, who has not yet been identified due to severe burns, was discovered with a walker and bags. The case has drawn attention to issues of subway safety, illegal immigration, and the adequacy of police response, as witnesses reported that bystanders recorded the incident without intervening. Zapeta's arraignment occurred on December 24, 2024, where he stated he could not remember the events leading to the woman's death.
View original story
Similar markets
Increased police presence • 25%
New surveillance measures • 25%
Policy changes on homeless shelters • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Increased confidence • 25%
Decreased confidence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Increased Shelter Security • 25%
Revised Homelessness Policies • 25%
No Significant Changes • 25%
Other Policy Changes • 25%
Improved perception • 25%
Worsened perception • 25%
No change • 25%
Mixed opinions • 25%
Increased crime rate • 25%
Public pressure and protests • 25%
Political initiatives • 25%
Other • 25%
Protests against immigration policy • 25%
Protests for increased subway security • 25%
No significant public demonstrations • 25%
Other forms of public reaction • 25%
Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) • 25%
New York City government • 25%
Federal government • 25%
No new measures implemented • 25%
Increased Subway Security Measures • 25%
Public Protests or Demonstrations • 25%
No Significant Public Reaction • 25%
Other Public Response • 25%
Increased police presence • 25%
Installation of surveillance cameras • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other security measures • 25%
Improved perception of safety • 25%
No change in perception • 25%
Worsened perception of safety • 25%
Mixed opinions • 25%
Mental health interventions • 25%
Increased police presence • 25%
Community-based programs • 25%
Other • 25%