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Primary diplomatic outcome of U.S.-Iran tensions over Syria strikes by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Military de-escalation agreement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Official diplomatic announcements or agreements reported by major news outlets
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CENTCOM Strikes Iranian-Backed Militias in Syria After Attacks on U.S. Personnel
Nov 11, 2024, 09:54 PM
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted precision strikes against nine targets associated with Iranian-backed militias in northeastern Syria. The strikes were a direct response to multiple attacks on U.S. personnel in the region over the past 24 hours. General Kurilla emphasized that attacks on U.S. and coalition partners will not be tolerated. The targeted locations were linked to groups supported by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), with footage showing an A-10C aircraft involved in the strikes.
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Successful transition • 25%
Partial transition • 25%
Failed transition • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
High-level Talks • 33%
Low-level Talks • 33%
No Talks • 33%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Ongoing tensions • 25%
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International sanctions • 25%
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Other regional power gains influence • 25%
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