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Primary cause of Bayesian superyacht sinking as determined by August 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Human error • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Weather conditions • 25%
Other • 25%
Official investigation report or announcements from Italian authorities
Story
Italian Authorities Open Manslaughter Probe into Superyacht Sinking, Seven Dead Including Mike Lynch
Aug 24, 2024, 10:39 AM
Italian authorities have launched a manslaughter and negligent shipwreck investigation following the sinking of the Bayesian superyacht off the coast of Sicily. The incident resulted in the deaths of seven individuals, including British tech tycoon Mike Lynch and his daughter Hannah. The yacht capsized during a storm, prompting prosecutors to examine potential culpable homicide. The investigation is led by Ambrogio Cartosio, the public prosecutor of Termini Imerese, as officials seek to determine the circumstances and responsibilities surrounding the tragedy.
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Mechanical failure • 25%
Human error • 25%
Weather conditions • 25%
Other • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Human error • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Other • 25%
Weather Conditions • 25%
Human Error • 25%
Mechanical Failure • 25%
Other • 25%
Natural causes (storm/tornado) • 25%
Human error • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Other • 25%
Storm-related structural failure • 25%
Human error • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Other • 25%
Freak storm • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Human error • 25%
Other • 25%
Captain • 25%
Crew members • 25%
Owner • 25%
Other • 25%
Storm/Weather conditions • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Human error • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
