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Market
Percentage range of Black voter support for Trump in 2024 Election
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 20% • 25%
20%-30% • 25%
30%-40% • 25%
More than 40% • 25%
Official election exit polls.
Story
CNN: Trump Doubles Support Among Black Voters Since 2020, Best GOP Performance in Generations
May 17, 2024, 03:41 PM
CNN's average of polls indicates that former President Donald Trump has more than doubled his support among Black voters since 2020. This surge in support, if maintained through the general election, would represent the best performance for a Republican among Black voters in two generations, comparable to Richard Nixon's performance in 1960. Notably, Trump has garnered significant backing from a quarter of Black voters under the age of 50. Analysts suggest this shift could disrupt identity politics.
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Similar markets
Below 20% • 25%
20%-30% • 25%
30%-40% • 25%
Above 40% • 25%
Majority support for Biden • 33%
Majority support for Trump • 33%
Evenly split or other outcome • 34%
Less than 30% • 25%
30%-40% • 25%
40%-50% • 25%
More than 50% • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Donald Trump > Joe Biden > Other • 33%
Joe Biden > Donald Trump > Other • 33%
Other > Joe Biden > Donald Trump • 34%
Significant impact • 50%
No significant impact • 50%
0-10% • 25%
11-20% • 25%
21-30% • 25%
More than 30% • 25%
Below 40% • 33%
40%-50% • 33%
Above 50% • 34%
Public endorsement by influential Black leaders • 33%
Public criticism by influential Black leaders • 33%
No significant public reactions by influential Black leaders • 34%