Loading...
Market
Participants in Jenkins' exchange by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Aussie Cossack • 25%
Ukrainian soldier • 25%
Russian political prisoner • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements or verified news reports
Story
Russian Forces Capture 32-Year-Old Australian Mercenary Oscar Jenkins Near Kramatorsk, First Time in Conflict
Dec 22, 2024, 01:15 PM
Russian forces have captured Oscar Jenkins, a 32-year-old Australian who was reportedly serving as a mercenary in Ukraine. This marks the first instance of an Australian mercenary being taken alive since the onset of the conflict. Jenkins, described as a biology teacher, was apprehended near Kramatorsk while fighting alongside the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In a video of his interrogation, he appeared confused about his situation, responding to Russian soldiers' questions about his desire to live. There are indications that a prisoner exchange may be in the works, involving Jenkins and a figure known as Aussie Cossack.
View original story
Similar markets
Released through prisoner exchange • 25%
Released through diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Remains in custody • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Released • 25%
Exchanged in prisoner swap • 25%
Remains detained • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia • 25%
Iran • 25%
North Korea • 25%
Other • 25%
Ransom Paid • 25%
Data Released • 25%
Negotiation Ongoing • 25%
Breach Mitigated • 25%
Marc Rowan • 25%
Steve Mnuchin • 25%
Larry Kudlow • 25%
Other • 25%
