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Outcome of US involvement in Ukraine-Russia conflict by June 2025?
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Joe Biden•Ukraine•Russia•US•North Korea•Russian•AT•Karachev•Bryansk•Russian Defense Ministry•Vladimir Putin•NATO
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military aid to Ukraine • 25%
Withdrawal of military aid • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
No change in current policy • 25%
Official US government statements or credible international news agencies
Story
Ukraine Uses US ATACMS Missiles to Strike Russia's Bryansk Region After Biden's Authorization
Nov 19, 2024, 12:12 PM
President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use US-supplied long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia, marking a significant shift in US policy. In response to North Korea's deployment of troops to support Russian forces, Ukraine launched six US-made ATACMS missiles at a military facility near Karachev in Russia's Bryansk region at 3:25 AM. The Russian Defense Ministry reported that five missiles were intercepted, and one caused a fire with no casualties or significant damage. This attack represents the first use of US-provided long-range weapons by Ukraine against Russian territory, escalating tensions in the conflict. The action comes after Russia's recent deadly barrage targeting Ukraine's power grid and amid warnings from President Vladimir Putin that NATO's involvement would be considered as being at war with Russia.
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Prioritize peace over reclaiming Crimea • 25%
Maintain current policy supporting Ukraine's territorial claims • 25%
Increase military support to Ukraine • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete resolution • 25%
Partial resolution • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Conflict continues with no resolution • 25%
Ukraine gains territorial advantage • 25%
Russia gains territorial advantage • 25%
Stalemate/No resolution • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Military victory for Ukraine • 25%
Military victory for Russia • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Formal ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Conflict resolved with U.S. mediation • 25%
Conflict resolved without U.S. mediation • 25%
Conflict ongoing • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Escalation with more military strikes • 25%
De-escalation with peace talks • 25%
Status quo with no major changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Ukraine wins • 25%
Russia wins • 25%
Stalemate or ongoing conflict • 25%
Negotiated peace agreement • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Russia withdraws • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Ukraine regains territory • 25%
Russia gains territory • 25%