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Outcome of U.S. Debt Limit Situation by January 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Debt limit raised • 25%
Debt limit suspended • 25%
Extraordinary measures implemented • 25%
Default on debt • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. Treasury, Congress, and major news outlets
Story
U.S. Treasury to Reach New Debt Limit by January 23, 2025, Extraordinary Measures Planned
Dec 27, 2024, 09:56 PM
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has informed congressional leaders that a new debt limit will be established on January 2, 2025, based on the outstanding debt at the end of the previous day. Yellen stated that the Treasury does not anticipate needing to implement extraordinary measures immediately on January 2 to prevent a U.S. default. However, she expects the new debt limit to be reached between January 14 and January 23, 2025, at which point the Treasury will need to start taking such measures. Yellen has urged Congress to act to defend the 'full faith and credit' of the United States, indicating that special accounting maneuvers may be necessary in mid-January to avoid breaching the debt limit.
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Unchanged • 25%
Other • 25%
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Debt ceiling raised • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
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Debt ceiling increased • 25%
Debt ceiling remains unchanged • 25%
Temporary extension • 25%
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Debt ceiling abolished • 25%
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Other legislative solution • 25%
Debt ceiling suspended • 25%
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Other outcome • 25%
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Increased • 25%
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Credit rating downgraded • 25%
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Shutdown extends beyond January 31 • 25%
Debt ceiling suspended without shutdown • 25%
Shutdown occurs but resolved before January 31 • 25%
Shutdown averted with new funding bill • 25%