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Outcome of Ukrainian Draft Policy on Ukrainian-Polish Relations by End of 2024
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations due to security cooperation • 25%
Deteriorated relations due to diaspora concerns • 25%
No significant change in relations • 25%
Increased economic collaboration despite tensions • 25%
Analysis from geopolitical experts and official statements
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Ukraine Targets Men in Poland for Draft, Risks National Split
Apr 28, 2024, 03:02 PM
The Ukrainian government has taken measures to strengthen its military forces by targeting Ukrainian men abroad, particularly in Poland. On April 24, Kyiv announced intentions to bring back military-aged men to fight, a move that has raised concerns among the Ukrainian diaspora in Poland about potential deportation and being sent to the front. The government has withheld consular services to these individuals, compelling them to return home where they face potential conscription. This policy has been reinforced by a new law on mobilization and increased border patrols aimed at preventing draft evasion. Additionally, a specific ruling now requires men to return to Ukraine to renew their passports, further increasing the likelihood of being drafted. These steps have created a threat of national split.
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Significant deterioration • 25%
Minor or no change • 25%
Improvement through diplomatic efforts • 25%
Stagnation in relations • 25%
Increased tensions • 34%
Resolution of conflict • 33%
Status quo • 33%
Improved relations with the US and EU • 25%
Strained relations with Russia • 25%
Increased support from NATO • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deterioration of relations • 33%
No change in relations • 33%
Improvement of relations • 34%
Status quo remains • 25%
Significant Ukrainian gains • 25%
Significant Russian gains • 25%
Negotiated peace settlement • 25%
Increase in approval • 25%
Decrease in approval • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Data unavailable or inconclusive • 25%
Strengthened Position • 33%
Unchanged Position • 33%
Weakened Position • 33%
Enhanced cooperation • 33%
Maintain current relations • 33%
Reduce engagement • 33%
Strengthened position • 50%
No change in position • 25%
Weakened position • 25%
Increase border security • 25%
Engage in diplomatic talks with Belarus • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Seek EU-wide solution • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 33%
Conflict ongoing • 33%
Conflict escalated • 33%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Continuation of current status • 25%
Reduction in hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%