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Outcome of Ukraine's first ATACMS strike in Russia by Jan 2025
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Joe Biden•Ukraine•Russia•Army Tactical Missile Systems•Russian•Ukrainian•North Korean•Kursk•North Korea•Donald Trump•Vladimir Putin•NATO
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful with significant impact • 25%
Successful with limited impact • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
No attack conducted • 25%
Reports from Ukrainian military, Russian military, or credible international news agencies
Story
Biden Allows Ukraine to Hit Russia with U.S. ATACMS as North Korea Aids Moscow
Nov 17, 2024, 07:11 PM
President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia, marking a significant reversal of U.S. policy. The decision allows Ukraine to employ Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which have a range of up to 190 miles (306 kilometers), against Russian forces. Ukrainian forces plan to conduct their first long-range attacks in the coming days, targeting Russian and North Korean troops stationed in regions such as Kursk. This move comes in response to North Korea's deployment of thousands of troops to support Russia's military efforts in the ongoing conflict. The policy shift occurs two months before President-elect Donald Trump is set to take office, signaling a major escalation in the war. Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously warned that strikes on Russia with long-range weapons would signify NATO's involvement in the conflict.
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Successful with significant damage to Russian/North Korean targets • 25%
Partially successful with limited damage • 25%
Unsuccessful with no significant damage • 25%
Cancelled or delayed • 25%
Increased Ukrainian territorial gains • 25%
Russian military withdrawal from key areas • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Increased international diplomatic intervention • 25%
Significant military success • 25%
Limited military success • 25%
No military impact • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Significant Ukrainian territorial gains • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Significant Russian counteroffensive • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successful strategic advantage • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Successful strike with significant damage • 25%
Strike attempted but intercepted • 25%
No strike attempted • 25%
Strike attempted with minimal impact • 25%
