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Outcome of Turkish military actions against Kurdish militants by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete withdrawal of Kurdish militants • 25%
Significant reduction in militant activity • 25%
No change in militant presence • 25%
Increased Kurdish militant presence • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from involved parties
Story
Erdogan Warns Kurdish Militants in Syria on December 25: Lay Down Arms or Be Buried, Targets PKK and YPG
Dec 25, 2024, 10:40 AM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that Kurdish militants in Syria must either lay down their arms or face being buried with them. This declaration was made during a news conference following a Cabinet meeting on December 25, 2024. Erdoğan emphasized that there is no place for any terrorist organization, including the PKK and YPG, in the future of Syria and the region. He warned that these groups must either dissolve themselves or be eliminated. The remarks come amid escalating tensions between Turkey-backed Syrian fighters and Kurdish militants, particularly following recent developments in the region following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime.
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Complete PKK defeat • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
PKK gains ground • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Continued sporadic operations • 25%
Formal peace agreement • 25%
Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Complete elimination • 25%
Partial reduction • 25%
No significant change • 25%
PKK/YPG gains strength • 25%
PKK self-dissolves • 25%
PKK eliminated by Turkey • 25%
PKK remains active • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete elimination • 25%
Significant reduction • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Increased PKK activity • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
No success • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Failure • 25%
Condemnation by the UN • 25%
Sanctions imposed by EU • 25%
Support from NATO allies • 25%
No significant international response • 25%