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Outcome of Trump’s trial by the end of 2024
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Guilty on all counts • 33%
Guilty on some counts • 33%
Acquitted on all counts • 34%
Official court verdict and major news outlets
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Trump Faces 34 Felony Counts in Hush Money Trial; Judge Threatens Jail
May 6, 2024, 01:36 PM
In New York, the criminal trial against former President Donald Trump, centered on allegations of hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels, is intensifying. Prosecutors are attempting to prove Trump falsified business records to conceal a $130,000 payment made to Daniels through his lawyer, Michael Cohen, to suppress negative publicity during the 2016 election. Key witnesses, including a California lawyer and a longtime adviser, have testified. The trial has also spotlighted Trump's repeated violations of a gag order, leading to multiple fines and a strong warning from Judge Juan Merchan that future violations could result in jail time. Trump has been fined $9,000 for these infractions, with the latest fine being $1,000. Trump faces 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. A tape, which launched a political firestorm, was a serious driver in making the hush payment.
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Convicted • 33%
Acquitted • 33%
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Trump found not guilty • 33%
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Convicted on all counts • 33%
Convicted on some counts • 33%
Acquitted on all counts • 33%