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Outcome of TikTok's legal challenge against the U.S. ban by end of 2024
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Resolution / Starting Odds
TikTok wins outright • 33%
Compromise or settlement reached • 34%
U.S. government prevails • 33%
Judicial rulings or settlement announcements
Story
TikTok Sues U.S. to Block Ban Affecting 170 Million, Cites First Amendment
May 7, 2024, 04:22 PM
TikTok and its parent company ByteDance have filed a lawsuit against the U.S. government, challenging a new law signed by President Joe Biden that mandates the divestiture of the social media platform or face a nationwide ban. The companies argue that the law, which could lead to TikTok's shutdown by January 19, 2025, and affects 170 million American users, violates users' First Amendment rights. The lawsuit highlights concerns over ByteDance's extensive control over TikTok and its impact on free speech.
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TikTok wins • 33%
U.S. government wins • 33%
Case dismissed or withdrawn • 34%
TikTok wins • 33%
TikTok loses • 33%
Settlement reached • 34%
TikTok wins lawsuit • 33%
U.S. government wins lawsuit • 33%
Case settled out of court • 34%
TikTok Wins • 33%
TikTok Loses • 33%
Settlement • 34%
TikTok users win • 33%
US government wins • 33%
Settlement reached • 34%
Lawsuit successful • 50%
Lawsuit fails • 50%
Creators win lawsuit • 33%
Creators lose lawsuit • 33%
Settlement reached • 33%
TikTok Wins • 33%
TikTok Loses • 33%
Settlement Reached • 34%
Full dismissal of lawsuit • 33%
Partial concession by the government • 34%
Full victory for TikTok and ByteDance • 33%
TikTok wins • 33%
TikTok loses • 33%
Settlement • 34%
Complete ban • 33%
Forced sale • 33%
No action taken • 33%
Court upholds TikTok ban • 50%
Court overturns TikTok ban • 50%